Vehicles Keep Rolling Along

Even though 11.3 million vehicles were taken out of operation in the last year, the overall number keeps growing

By Gary S. Vasilash

Although 298,000,000—to use a ballpark figure—is the number of light-duty vehicles in operation (VIO) in the US. That’s according to the just-released Experian “Automotive Market Trends Report (Q1 2026).”

A large majority of those vehicles—81.5%, to be exact—are within the last 20 model years.

It should come as no surprise to anyone who has been on a road lately, 16.6% of those VIOs are full-size pickup trucks.

And drilling down to the model level, the number-one vehicle out there is the Ford F-150. It has 3.7% of the market share of VIOs.

It is followed by, again no surprise, the Chevy Silverado 1500.

The Silverado has 2.8% of the market, or 0.9% less than the F-150.

And Then There Are These. . .

What may come as a surprise to some, particularly those in the “Sedans Are Coming Back” cohort (who probably haven’t spent a great deal of time, if any, looking around them when out driving), the VIO third-place model is the Toyota Camry.

The Camry has 2.3% of the VIO market, so the difference between it and number two is less than that of two to three.

In fourth position is a compact crossover, the Honda CR-V, with 2%.

But it is tied at 2% with the Honda Accord, another sedan.

There is another tie for fifth. The Toyota RAV4, a compact crossover, and the Honda Civic, yes, a sedan (at this point there should be some mental forehead slapping with the thought, “Another sedan!”).

The sum of the trucks is 6.5%.

The sum of the sedans is 6.2%.

Not exactly a huge difference.

Gas Isn’t Exhausted

A more contemporaneous finding looks at the trend of propulsion systems based on retail registrations.

Back in 2023 ICE vehicles accounted for 72.4% of the new registrations. That fell to 69.6% in 2024.

ICE saw a further decline in 2025, down to 67.3%.

But in Q1 2026 there was a bump up to 69.5%. Yes, there are three quarters to go and yes, the war in Iran is still keeping pressure on gas prices, but it is interesting to put the ICE numbers in the context of EV numbers.

That is, in 2023 of the total market EVs were 7.1% of registrations. In 2025 there was an increase to 7.9%. 2025 saw a slight decrease, down to 7.8%.

In Q1 2026 there was a decline to 5.6% for EVs.

From its peak of 72.4% to the current 69.5% for ICE there is a relative drop of 4.01%.

However, from the EV peak of 7.9% to the current 5.6%, there is a 29.11% relative drop.

Meanwhile, in the category of gas/electric hybrids, in 2023 it had a 7.2% share of the market which is up to 13.5% in Q1 2026.

That’s an 87.5% relative increase.

Repairs and Operating Systems

Getting back to the longevity of the vehicles in operation, there is good news for repair shops and service departments in Experian’s findings.

As of Q1 2026 85.4% of light trucks, 88.4% of passenger cars, and 72% of utilities are out of the basic manufacturers’ warranty, so improved reliability and durability of vehicles notwithstanding, let’s face it, things wear out and things break. So there will likely be a consistent amount of work to be done by shops.

But this longevity brings up something to be considered.

Nowadays there is a considerable amount of talk about and even some development of software-defined vehicles (SDVs).

SDVs are essentially predicated on a centralized zonal architecture. Which means there is a seriously high-powered processor (the central part) that is handling input from a few controllers that are located around the vehicle (in the zones, of which there are about four, as in front, back, left, right).

The reason companies like NVIDIA are getting as much attention as they do in the auto space is because they make the systems-on-a-chip (SoCs) that process the tremendous amounts of data.

For the automakers this helps simplify the electrical and electronic architecture of a given vehicle as a vehicle sitting in a showroom right now might have 150 different electronic control units and spools of heavy wire (Ford estimates it will reduce the wiring in the forthcoming Universal Electric Vehicle platform by over 4,000 feet).

For the consumer SDV means updates, not unlike the updates one gets for an iPhone.

So if you keep getting more contemporary capabilities in your vehicle, you might be inclined to hang on to it for longer—which may increase the age and number of VIOs.

However, there’s something that doesn’t seem to get a whole lot of attention.

Microsoft provides 10 years of support for its operating systems. Windows 10 became widely available in July 2015. Microsoft stopped supporting it in October 2025. Sure, you can still use it. But as the free security updates are no longer available, it is probably a good idea not to use it.

And going to the iPhone, Apple limits the amount of time a given iPhone is supported. Presently the iPhone 11 is the oldest model that supports i0S 26, but should iOS 27 be launched in September 2026, that’s that for the iPhone 11. Again, the phone still works, and Apple typically provides security updates for older operating systems, but the latest functionalities will be absent.

What will become of older SDVs? How long will the systems be supported? What functions will a given SDV model age out of over time? Who will be able to diagnose and repair older SoCs or zonal controllers?

These questions probably don’t need answers for another 10 to 15 years.

But they are worth thinking about.

A PC or an iPhone can be readily replaced for under $1,000. But when it comes to a vehicle, that number is a whole lot higher.